56. A new project manager in a construction company was helping prepare the duration estimates for a house rehabilitation project. The project manager was working with the lead estimator who said the company uses the triangular distribution method to determine activity durations. Based on the estimator's experience, the project could take as long as 1,500 labor hours to complete but thinks they should be able to complete it in 1,250 hours. If everything goes smoothly, it could take only 1,100 hours.
Answer: A
1,283 hours
Using the triangular distribution method, the expected duration can be calculated by taking the average of the best-case, most likely, and worst-case scenarios. In this case, the calculation is (1,100 + 1,250 + 1,500) / 3, which results in approximately 1,283 hours.
A) 1,283 hours
This option is correct as it represents the average of the three estimates provided using the triangular distribution formula. The calculation follows the method accurately, leading to the conclusion that 1,283 hours is the expected duration for the project.
B) 1,250 hours
This option reflects the most likely estimate provided by the estimator but does not account for the variability in the project duration. While it is a reasonable estimate, it does not represent the average derived from the triangular distribution method, making it incorrect.
C) 1,269 hours
This option does not correspond to any calculated average based on the available data. It is not derived from the triangular distribution method and does not reflect the most likely or average duration, rendering it incorrect.
D) 1,100 hours
This option represents the best-case scenario and not the average duration for the project. While it is a valid estimate, it does not encompass the range of possible durations and therefore does not align with the expected value calculated using the triangular distribution method.
Conclusion
The correct answer, 1,283 hours, is derived from applying the triangular distribution method correctly, averaging the three provided estimates. This highlights the importance of considering both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios in project duration estimation, whereas the other options fail to represent the most accurate expected duration based on the given data.