14. A new project manager in a construction company was helping prepare the duration estimates for a house rehabilitation project. The project manager was working with the lead estimator who said the company uses the triangular distribution method to determine activity durations. Based on the estimator's experience, the project could take as long as 1,500 labor hours to complete but thinks they should be able to complete it in 1,250 hours. If everything goes smoothly, it could take only 1,100 hours.
Answer: A
1,283 hours
Using the triangular distribution method, the estimated duration for the project can be calculated by taking the average of the minimum, most likely, and maximum estimates. In this case, the calculation results in an estimated duration of 1,283 hours.
A) 1,283 hours
This option is correct as it represents the average of the project duration estimates. The triangular distribution formula for the average is (minimum + most likely + maximum) / 3, which in this context translates to (1,100 + 1,250 + 1,500) / 3 = 1,283 hours.
B) 1,250 hours
This option is incorrect because it reflects the most likely estimate provided by the estimator, not the average duration calculated using the triangular distribution. While 1,250 hours is a significant estimate, it does not account for the variability expressed in the minimum and maximum estimates.
C) 1,269 hours
This option is also incorrect as it does not correspond to any calculation based on the triangular distribution method. It is not a direct representation of the average, minimum, or maximum estimates provided, thus failing to reflect the appropriate estimated duration.
D) 1,100 hours
This option is incorrect because it represents the best-case scenario of the project duration, where everything goes smoothly. However, the triangular distribution takes into account a range of estimates, and using only the minimum value does not yield an accurate average.
Conclusion
The correct answer, 1,283 hours, accurately reflects the average of the minimum, most likely, and maximum estimates using the triangular distribution method. All other options either represent only one aspect of the estimates or do not align with the calculation needed to determine an average duration, demonstrating the importance of integrating all estimates in project duration planning.