42. Two project teams are assigned to upgrade an on-premise data warehouse to a cloud-based data lake in 13 months. The infrastructure team has five team members, while the enterprise analytics team has three team members. The enterprise analytics team cannot move into production until the infrastructure team has completed the migration. What should be used to find the probability that the project will be completed on time?
Answer: B
Conditional probability should be used to find the probability that the project will be completed on time.
In this scenario, the completion of the enterprise analytics team's work is dependent on the infrastructure team's successful migration. Therefore, conditional probability is the appropriate method to evaluate the likelihood of timely project completion based on this dependency.
A) Multiplication principle
The multiplication principle is used for determining the total number of outcomes in a situation where multiple events occur independently. Since the completion of the enterprise analytics team’s work is not independent of the infrastructure team's progress, this approach is not suitable.
B) Conditional probability
Conditional probability is the correct choice because it specifically addresses scenarios where the outcome of one event depends on the occurrence of another. In this case, the enterprise analytics team can only proceed once the infrastructure team completes the migration, making conditional probability essential for calculating the project's on-time completion likelihood.
C) Bayes’ theorem
Bayes’ theorem is utilized for updating the probability of a hypothesis based on new evidence. While it deals with conditional probabilities, it is more complex and not directly applicable to this straightforward dependency scenario between the two teams.
D) Combination
Combination is a method used to calculate the number of ways to choose items from a larger set without regard to the order of selection. This concept does not apply to the situation described, as it does not involve selecting items or outcomes but rather evaluating the timing of project completion based on team dependencies.
Conclusion
Conditional probability is essential in this context because it allows for the calculation of the likelihood of the enterprise analytics team's completion based on the infrastructure team's prior success in migration. The other options do not address the dependency and timing of the two teams' work, making them unsuitable for determining the project's on-time completion probability.