45. Two project teams are assigned to upgrade an on-premise data warehouse to a cloud-based data lake in 13 months. The infrastructure team has five team members, while the enterprise analytics team has three team members. The enterprise analytics team develops a star schema data model in a development environment while the infrastructure team migrates the organization’s production database into the cloud environment. The enterprise analytics team cannot move into production until the infrastructure team has completed the migration. What should be used to find the probability that the project will be completed on time?
Answer: C
Conditional probability should be used to find the probability that the project will be completed on time.
In this scenario, the enterprise analytics team's ability to move into production is dependent on the infrastructure team's completion of the migration. This situation exemplifies conditional probability, as it involves calculating the likelihood of one event occurring given that another event has already occurred.
A) Bayes theorem
Bayes theorem is used to update the probability of a hypothesis based on new evidence. While it is relevant in contexts where prior probabilities need to be adjusted, it is not the correct choice here since the scenario focuses on the dependency of two events rather than the revision of probabilities based on new data.
B) Multiplication principle
The multiplication principle is used to determine the total number of outcomes for a sequence of events when each event can occur independently. In this case, the events are not independent; the completion of the enterprise analytics team's work depends on the infrastructure team's progress, making this principle inappropriate for calculating the project's completion probability.
C) Conditional probability
Conditional probability is applicable here as it assesses the likelihood of the enterprise analytics team completing their tasks on time, given the condition that the infrastructure team has successfully migrated the database. This directly aligns with the dependencies outlined in the project setup.
D) Combination
Combination refers to the selection of items from a larger set where the order does not matter. This concept does not apply to the scenario, as the focus is not on selecting items but on the relationship and dependency between the completion of two critical tasks in the project.
Conclusion
Conditional probability is the most appropriate method to assess the likelihood of the project's timely completion, given the dependency between the infrastructure team's migration and the enterprise analytics team's production readiness. The other options fail to capture the nature of the relationship between the events, rendering them unsuitable for this scenario.